The Pin Bar Candlestick Reversal Pattern in my opinion is the single  most powerful candlestick reversal pattern there is! When identified correctly and traded the right way it will produce consistent profits time and time again. This individual single bar reversal pattern is enough to make a living off of when managed correctly.

In this post we will look at what is a Pin Bar, the difference between a great Pin Bar Reversal and an average reversal pattern. Where to look for Pin Bar reversal patterns, the correct way to trade Pin Bars, the best position to  place your stops and finally is there a good time to take a Pin Bar Trade.

What is a Pin Bar ?

A Pin Bar is a candlestick pattern where the body of the candlestick is very small and has a very long wick.  There are two types of Pin Bars a Bullish Pin Bar and a Bearish Pin Bar.

A Bullish Bar is represented by a small body at the top and a long wick below, this indicates that price was sold down by the bears and then immediately bought straight back up by the Bulls. In a perfect world the close is above the open for a bullish pattern and no wick at the top of the body. The opposite of this is true for a bearish pattern.

I stated that this was the case in a perfect world but if you limit yourself to this perfect pattern you will be missing out on an awful lot of good trades. This pattern comes in many forms and it is up to the discretion of the individual as to what identifies a tradable Pin Bar and a non-tradable one. Here are some examples of Pin Bars that I find are acceptable and will not hesitate to initiate a trade from.

This example shows all bullish Pin Bars, bearish reversal patterns are the exact opposite. note: for the sake of this article I will refer to bullish reversals patterns as blue in color and bearish reversal patterns as red in color.

What to look for in a Pin Bar

• I am looking for a small body to the bar, the smaller the better
• At a minimum I am looking for a wick that is three times the length of the body, but the longer the better. A Pin Bar with a wick that is ten times the length of the body has a much higher probability than one with much less.
• Location, location, location is just as true for a  Pin Bar Candlestick as it is for real estate. I will get into this later in the article but it is just as important as the reversal pattern itself.
• The wick must stick out from the surrounding price action

When It’s not a Pin Bar Reversal

• When it doesn’t meet the above criteria
• when it has a long wick protruding past the close or opposite the long wick, this then forms more of a spinning top style pattern and is far less reliable
• When it appears in a less than favorable location

Where to look for a Pin Bar Candlestick

• Previous major swing highs or swing lows
• Any major levels of Support and Resistance
• Pivot Points
• Trend Lines
• Round Numbers
• At Fibonacci levels
• Where there is strong confluence or a combination of many of the above points

Here are some examples of the Pin Bar in play

The way to trade the Pin Bar Reversal

In my opinion there is only one way to trade the Pin Bar Candlestick and that  is to always and I do stress ALWAYS wait for the bar to close. Once the bar is closed only then can you be certain that the Pin Bar has formed correctly. Once the bar has been identified it is just a matter of insuring it has formed in a high probability location, then quite simply open a position using your own risk parameters.

Stop placement when trading the Pin Bar Candlestick

Stop Loss placement is the simplest part of the whole equation. In my opinion there is only one place to put your stop when taking a Pin Bar play and that is at the extreme of the long wick, I generally place mine the distance of the spread plus five pips.

The reason for this is quite simple, it is quite common for price to re-test previous major levels. This just so happens to be where we are taking our trades and there is nothing worse then taking a position only to see it get stopped out and then see it go and hit your profit target.

Is there a good time to take a Pin Bar

There are times when these Pin Bar reversals can be a higher probability trade, this is really only relevant if you are trading the lower time frames, for example the 5min, 15min, 30 min and 1 hour time frames. These times are

• Frankfurt open
• London 0pen
• US open
• Sydney open

The reason for this is these are times when there a fresh new players coming into the market, if enough of these players have a different opinion than the current market the gross effect of this is they can turn the market on a dime.  It is this sort of market behavior that creates these Pin Bar Reversals.

Conclusion

The Pin Bar Candlestick reversal Pattern is one that not only happens to occur quite frequently, it is also one of the most powerful reversal patterns available to a forex trader. This pattern can be traded on any time frame and is best traded from major price action levels like previous support and resistance or pivot points and the like. The better the Pin Bar formation the higher the probability and the better the location the higher the probability. Only take the best Pin Bars in the best locations and the rewards will speak for themselves.

So Where to from Here

The Pin Bar is only part of the plan, what you now have is an excellent entry strategy for a forex trading system.  To complete this  system you still require a Pin Bar Money Management Strategy, a Pin Bar Trade Management Strategy and a Pin Bar Exit Strategy.

Once you have established  these criteria, there is one final thing to do Back Test! Back Test the system and confirm  that you have a profitable system.

Click Here to Get This Revolutionary Trading Software and Stop Losing Money Now!

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Why Load the Boat?

In all trading we identify opportunities through our analysis which we anticipate favor a price movement in one direction. One of the most challenging parts of trading the news can be getting filled where you want.  What makes this trade so special is the fact that this is the premise behind the trade.

Although this is a trade that does not happen very often it is a trade that offers some of the greatest risk to reward ratios I have ever experienced in day trading. The thing with news trading is it is notorious for wide spreads and poor fills.Now we need to consider why this is so, so that we can understand the advantage that this trade offers over other strategies.

Forex is a zero sum game, what this means is that for every buyer there has to be a seller or there is no trade. This is exactly what happens around these major announcements, many players are extremely risk averse at these times and therefore remove all there standing orders that they have in place and sit on the sidelines until after the volatility generated around news time has died down. The outcome of this is a major reduction in liquidity and therefore the chances of finding someone to take the other side of your trade are significantly reduced.

Many traders attempt to trade the news and fail miserably, this is because they don’t understand what is taking place at the time of the release. The number one biggest mistake a fledgling news trader can make is to try and capture the breakout of the release. They access the release and then place their order to then see it get filled 40 plus pips later. The best explanation for this is covered in this post The Structure of Forex Brokers, I recommend you read it first and then continue with this post.

This trade has a specific set of rules and things to look for and after you understand what is actually happening you can begin to see the enormous opportunities that exist. For this example I will use the same one I used for my News Trading for Easy Money Post. As I stated in that post, prior to news announcements especially the NFP price will often oscillate in a tight range prior to the release, when this happens it is quite easy to identify where the orders will be but is not a pre-requisite for the trade.  All I am really looking for are the most recent highs and lows.  I am talking about the last hour or two on the 5 min chart,  this chart shows what I am talking about.

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This is KEY for it is these highs and lows  that the bold breakout traders will place there orders outside of in anticipation of capturing the breakout.  It is also quite common for these same traders to place an order on both sides of this range in essence straddling the range in preparation for grabbing the breakout which ever way it goes.  It is these orders that I am targeting with the spike,   it is why the spike forms and therefore there is someone there to take the other side of the trade.

This is what makes this trade so appealing to me, the fact that my odds of getting in early on the move and getting filled are remarkably increased due to this phenomenon. In this example the forecast was -119k and the actual release was -11k, this is great news for the US economy and therefore the GBP/USD pair should see a significant fall in price.  In the next chart you can see the spike clearly and it is this spike that I endevour to catch.

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The previous high was 1.6664 and the high of the spike was 1.6672, 8 pips and then price reversed and proceeded to drop like a brick, price dropped over a 100 pips in the next 30 minutes.  If you fail to catch this first move then you simply stand aside and await the first retrace, once this forms you use one of the other strategies to look for your next entry.

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I stated earlier in the post that this trade does not happen that regularly but when it does I hope you can now see the opportunity this trade offers.  Please note that prior to the release it is best to drop down to the one minute chart as you get a much clearer view of the price action and can fine tune your entry.

This style of trading is not for the faint hearted and again I can’t stress the importance of back testing, this all happens pretty fast and you need to be on the ball to interpret the release and take action in seconds.  The most important thing is getting the announcement on time.

Most forums are useless for this style of trading as by the time you get the number it is to late.  Many brokers have instant news providers now and if not there are plenty of providers out there.  The best value for money that I have found is a website called TradeTheNews.com, they offer both a text platform and an audio platform.  The audio is the best choice as you get to hear the release rather than have to read it but this is all dependent on your budget, but as a whole once mastered the text is quite adequate.

I should have some videos up soon that will demonstrate clearly how to do the various news trades and I will elaborate more on trade management as well and profit taking,  I am also doing one demonstrating how I back test  these strategies which I feel will be immensely beneficial to many of you.

Perry

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News announcements generate some of the best trading opportunities that exist in the markets. This style of trading has one distinct advantage over other styles of day trading and that is from a time management  point of view. A news strategy allows you to pick exactly when you want to trade, you could pick just the very major announcements and just trade 5 or 6 times a month and potentially make quite a substantial income.

Some of these that I consider to be great opportunities are:

• NFP – Non Farm Payrolls
• Cash Rate
• CPI – Consumer Price Index
• Trade Balance
• GDP – Gross Domestic Product
• Retail Sales
• New Home Sales

This is by no means a comprehensive list and each country has different announcements that can effect it’s currency.  I only trade the US announcements and really only trade the eur/usd or gbp/usd on these types of trades. Forex Factory has  a good comprehensive calender here that will give you all the announcements for the week and rates them  as high, medium and low impact announcements.

Working out just how much of a surprise is the only real challenge with this type of trading and does require a bit of homework to ascertain what would be a minimum surprise for you to take a trade. To get these figures I have used a combination of  ForexTester (which anyone who follows this site will know I consider an absolute must for anyone wanting to succeed on this path) and Forex Factory that has a 10 year history of economic announcements on their site.

For all examples in this article I will use the NFP announcement as in my personal opinion it is the best of the best when it comes to news trading announcements.  For me I look to see a change of a minimum 80k in the number for me to even take a trade, anything less and that’s it I just turn off my computer and call it a day.  I recommend you all do your own back testing and armed with that knowledge you can choose at what level you feel you are comfortable the odds favor a decent move.

This strategy will complement My divergence strategy that I wrote about previously.  I am working on the same principal that when there is a significant surprise and as an example that it is positive for the currency, I am only interested in trading in that direction, this is paramount and trading the other way is next akin to trading against the trend.  This is a distinct advantage as  I now know which direction I am going to trade and now just need to find an optimum entry point, stop loss and profit target.

I rarely trade the breakout of the number as unless you have access to an exceptional broker the odds of getting filled are not good.  You can place a trade and get filled 50 pips later only to watch price retrace and take out your stop, I am yet to find a broker that you can get a decent fill in these scenarios.  There is one exception to this rule and that is  when  I witness a huge spike in price in the opposite direction to what I  expected. This to me is like waving a red flag at a bull, when I witness this type of price action it is time to load the boat.  I will generally go to my maximum level of risk  on this type of trade as the rewards can be exceptional.

Why do these spikes happen?  This is the market makers and banks targeting stops before taking the market in the right direction.  I see these situations all the time and they are what are known as false breakouts, these banks and market makers have the luxury of seeing exactly where all the orders are and if they are within their reach they will drive price in that direction, take out all the stops and then drive it back the other way and thus literally double dipping and accumulating more profits  for themselves.  I personally don’t have access to these orders but just by understanding what is happening I can capitalize on this situation and literally ride on their shirt tails.  I am writing a separate article on this trade so keep your eyes peeled for that one, it wont be far away and I will add a link to this post when It’s done.

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My goal in this situation is I want to wait for price to have its first run then when it starts to pull back I look for an entry to get in on the retrace.  This for me is completely discretionary and I have a number of things that I look for to enter a position. I use a combination of candlestick patterns, oscillators, a moving average, Fibonacci retracements, support and resistance and the count back.

Depending on the type of announcement depends on how large a move price will initially take.  For the NFP when the numbers meet my criteria I expect to see an initial move of between 50-90 pips.  It is possible to capture some of this move but it is definitely not the easy money, for this trade I am only after the easy money and this is simply a matter of waiting until all the players have cast their vote.   At this time we know the direction and are then awaiting a pull back in price for an entry opportunity to present itself.

The entry is then a matter of getting aboard the move once price has retraced.  You will have to establish your own entry criteria but what we are looking for is a reversal or a rejection of a price level, this could be as simple as a pin bar at the 50% fib level or any signal that meets your own personal criteria.

STOPS

To establish a stop position for this type of trade is very easy for me as trading these small time frames I am trying to keep my risk small and position size appropriately as large as I can in accordance with my own risk parameters.  I simply place my stop a few pips below the low of the reversal point I have identified as my entry.

Profit Targets

Setting profit targets is of major importance to the success of any trading strategy and extremely challenging for most new traders.  There is always the challenge of how to identify when to exit a position.  For most it is a matter of finding a balance between protecting profits that are currently on the table and exiting to early in the move and leaving a large percentage of the profits on the table.

This process for me is quite simple and  easy as I use three indicators to identify when to exit a position or at least take partial profits.  The indicators I use are support and resistance, recent swing highs and lows and the ADR or Average Daily Range.

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To Summarize the process should be like this:

1. Just before News is released asses where the profit targets are
   • What is the high for the day?
   • What is the low for the day?
   • What is the ADR for the currency pair?
   • What are the most recent swing highs and swing lows?
   • Project profit targets using the ADR
2. Once the figures are released we then assess them and ascertain whether they meet our trade criteria. This is a simple yes we are trading today as the figures are within our guidelines or no they don’t meet our criteria so no trade.
3. If the figures meet our guidelines it is then just a matter of observing price action and identifying the first significant retracement in price.
4. We then take a position using our entry rules.
5. Place the stop just beyond the high or low of the retracement.
6. Since we have already calculated our profit targets its is then just a matter of observing price and taking profits appropriately.

This is my News Trading in it’s simplest form and if this is not completely clear don’t panic as there will be plenty of follow up articles.  I am also making videos of trading examples which will make the whole process much clearer.  I will post the links to other articles in this post as I produce them.

Perry

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Anticipating a reversal in price and entering on the resumption of an existing trend is a great way to capture large swings in the market or add to current positions, anticipating these moves and actually capturing them are two completely different things.  The count back entry method will allow you to  get in near the start of these moves when other signals may not be present.

There are many ways that you can get into the market when it is having a correction or pulling back from the main move.  Some of these are to look for candlestick reversal patterns or the cross of an indicator or 2 moving averages or the break of a minor trend line.  There are unlimited ways you could enter this type of  situation but these signals are not always there and thus you can miss a large part of the move before you realize that you need to get aboard now.

I want you to think about when you are already in a move and you are looking to protect profits, how do you manage this situation.  One way is to utilize a trailing stop and all this does is trail price at a specific distance of your choice and if price reverses by whatever amount you have chosen the order is automatically filled and you are out of the market.  This entry technique is quite similar in function to a trailing stop but works the opposite in that it is a trailing entry instead.  It trails price buy a number of price bars, this can be any number of your choice but i prefer a three count.

Now this is where it is a little bit different than a trailing stop as the count only counts a bar that has made a new high or low depending on the direction of price, if a price bar is inside the high/low of the last candle then it does not count.  Here is a series of charts to demonstrate the count back in action, for this example we are assuming that an uptrend is already in play and we are looking to buy.

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By using the three bar count the entry also allows for price volatility  where as if you used a fixed amount to trail price you could be exposed to much more whipsaw.  What I like the most about this method though is its absolute simplicity and ease of implementation,  for these are the foundation of robust trading methods.

As with all things trading the simpler it is the easier it is to replicate  and ultimately much less chance of things going wrong, the more complex a method is just means a lot more variables to allow for and thus more risk.

Perry

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This is an extremely effective forex strategy that I use for trading the Non Farm Payroll numbers.  This strategy can be used on any news announcement,  the key to trading this strategy is you want a substantial fundamental surprise.  What I mean  by this is you are looking for a dramatic change in the actual number compared with the forecast number. The bigger the surprise the better the opportunity exists for profits.  What this surprise creates for technical traders is momentum and momentum means OPPORTUNITY.

I Love the Non-Farm Payroll as in my honest opinion it is the best trading day of the month,  If I were to only trade once a month then this would be it and as I have stated many times, you only need to master one trading method and you are on your way toward financial freedom.  This would give anyone a realistic chance to trade as it requires only one day a month of your time and you really only need to trade for about five to six hours and your done.  It is quite easy and far less time consuming as other methods  to back-test as well.

I know a lot of people who won’t go near the market on this day as they are scared due to the volatility but it is this volatility that creates the best opportunities!

When there is no surprises in the announcement and I am not looking at any other trades on the higher time frames I will just turn off the computer and take the day of as it will generally be a choppy one.

First thing  we need to do is identify what is a surprise so we know when to trade and not to trade.  A surprise has to be a very substantial shift in the number from the forecasted number.  I will use last months as an example as this is exactly what happened and thus there was a great opportunity for profits.

Now before I go any further there a many ways to trade these large announcements and over time I intend to cover a lot more of these but for today I am only going to discuss this one strategy to try and simplify things.  For the numbers I will use Forex Factories calender as it is available to all and quite reliable.  The only downfall to this is the number is generally delayed for two to three minutes but as this trading strategy is not about trading the news it is fine for this purpose.

Here I have inserted a picture of their calender on the day

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You will note that the previous months number was 4k or four thousand more employed people than the previous month.  This month the forecast is that there will be 3000 less employed people than last month, now look at the actual number.  There was actually 85000 less employed people than the previous month and 82000 less than the forecast.

This is a great example of  a fundamental surprise, now if the number had been only 50k or less I would not trade. When the surprise is less substantial the trading day tends to get very choppy and therefore much more challenging to trade.  What we are seeking is a very definite indication of market direction and when the surprise is large generally you will see the market move in the direction of the surprise.  In this example the USA had 85000 less jobs and this is not good at all for their economy and therefor not good for their currency.  The outcome is a weakening of the US Dollar or inversely a strengthening of there cross pair.

In this example I will use the Eur/Usd pair.  So this number should see a substantial bull move in the Euro due to the sudden weakness in the greenback and this is exactly what happened.

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Now for the rules

• We trade the 5 min chart
• First and foremost, we are only interested in trading in the direction of this fundamental shift so in this scenario we are only looking to buy or go long.
• We do not trade at all for the first fifteen minutes after the news is released.
• For the divergence I use the Stochastic Oscillator and the settings I use are 5,3,3.
• What I am looking for is divergence between the oscillator and price to give me a  signal to take a long position.

OK lets walk through the setup know and see just how to trade it. Once the news has been released we wait patiently for the first fifteen minutes and then we can start looking for our entry. There was an opportunity in this instance that appeared just shy of two hours later. After I have identified the divergence I then need to calculate my position size.

For this trade we placed our entry after the stochastic turned up confirming the divergence and also signaling our entry, this was at 1.4322.  To calculate our position size we need to know where our stop is and in this instance we would place our stop below the previous low, this was at 1.4294,  this gave us a stop-loss of 28 pips.

I will just go through how I calculate this just for those that are unsure.  We will assume that I have a trading capital of $10 000 and am risking 1% of capital per trade. So 1% of 10k is $100 dollars, to calculate my position size i simply divide 100 by my risk of 28 pips which would give me 100/28=3.5.  This equates to either 3 mini lots or 35 micro lots depending on your trading platform.

All that’s left to do now is place your target and for this I would use the previous high and this was at 1.4400.  This particular trade had a total risk of 28 pips and a total reward of 78 pips so a risk to reward ratio of 2.8:1.

Here is an image of the trade

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This is a simple strategy that is very effective if you have the patience to wait for the setup and the control to sit by and watch some very substantial moves that generally precede this trade. This is the trade in its simplest form, I have an advanced way I trade this setup and that is once the divergence is confirmed I look for a significant candlestick pattern to give me an entry and a stop position.  What I look for is either an engulfing pattern, a pin bar or an Inside bar to trigger the trade and then place my stop on the other side of the pattern.

In this particular scenario you could have used the breakout above the inside bar and placed your stop just below it.  What this achieves is a much smaller stop and thus the potential for larger position size and thus greater profits. In this case our entry would have been at 1.4321 with our stop at 1.4305.  This would have reduced our stop to only 16 pips allowing us to take a position of 6 mini lots or 6.2 micro lots.

Now this also offers greater potential of being stopped out so it totally depends on your appetite for risk as to the way you personally take these trades. I am inclined to take the lowest risk trades as I have learn t that risk is the only thing I have any control over in this game and when I am right I prefer to be positioned well for it.

So from here if this style of trading appeals to you then back-test it, try it and then implement it into your arsenal of trading tools.

I have a few other methods that I use to trade the NFP but will save those for another article.

Perry

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Wow……. losing, losing would have to be one of the most challenging parts of this business to come to terms with. Generally throughout life from when we were small children to our school years and eventually in our working lives we are taught consistently that winning is the desired outcome for all that we do. When you look at sports we are constantly looking to win, all of life is one big competition and we must excel and win as much as we can. This is our training and thus our belief system is that losing is wrong and losing is bad and losing makes you a failure and on and on it goes.

This is in exact opposite contrast to trading, in trading losing plays a major role and more often than not you will have more losing trades than winning trades. this is then a completely different mind set to what we are taught in life generally and thus can be quite difficult to assimilate into your trading initially. Coming to terms with the losing trades and excepting them can be a very long and highly emotional experience.

That is why most literature recommends that new traders starting out should only use money that they can afford to lose. This is not because you will definitely lose this money, even though for total newbies this is a highly probable outcome. No this is because if you can afford to lose this money the emotional attachment you experience when losing trade after trade can be substantially reduced. This can help you emotionally keep your eye on the ball and thus execute your plan as per your rule set, trade after trade whether you are winning or losing.

Losses are an integral part of trading and too many people spend too much time trying to figure out how to trade with the fewest losses. This is not to say that you should try and lose all the time either, but my point is that spending all your time trying to filter this and filter that is an effort directed towards failure. Take your losses and then forget them. Get past them, recognize that they will happen a lot and learn to handle the one thing you are in complete control of. How much risk you take and the size of losses you take. Then the only thing you will be left with will be profits.

I have read so much literature that states don’t worry about your winners they will take care of themselves just focus on your losers and try and figure out what you did wrong. I am in exact opposition to this thinking, the law of attraction states that “losers attract losers and winners attract winners”. Based on this information you should take your loss, accept it and forget it, then move on to the next trade. Focus on your winners and concentrate on what it is you are doing right and focus on replicating these actions. This is the path to profitable trading. Losses are just losses, make sure your winning trades are greater than your losing trades in aggregate and you are home free.

With trading you only need one way to make money or one system say. There are literally thousands of ways you can make money in the markets but here’s the thing. You only need one, focus on it, master it and replicate it, don’t worry about the losses they are just part of the plan.

I would be remiss if I didn’t mention the fact that back-testing is the only way you can see just how this process works. For all my back-testing I use ForexTester, with this software you can experience and simulate what real trading is like and prepare yourself for all the losses that come as an integral part of trading, accept them and move on to the next trade.

Perry

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Warrior Trading: Inside the Mind of an Elite Currency Trader (Wiley Trading) To say this is a great book is an understatement. I have just finished reading this book and was totally absorbed throughout the entire book. Is this book good for newbie traders, I don’t think so. The concepts and the analogies that Clifford uses are much more suited to some one with at least some trading experience. I noticed that on Amazon the reviews were very mixed and I would say this has some bearing there. I personally think this is the best trading psychology book I have ever read. I know a lot of people refer to Van Tharp’s Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom as the ultimate book in this field and previous to reading this book I would have agreed, but after reading warrior trading my opinion has changed completely.

This guy really gets right inside the mind of a trader and conveys it in such a way as to really make you think about just what is going on in the market and how you can benefit from that. This is not a book that says wait for this indicator to do this and wait for that type book. What this book does is really challenge your mind into thinking on a much deeper level about market structure and what others are thinking and WHY they are thinking it. He conveys this through analogies which I found made it even easier to relate to and understand. This book was a real eye opener for me and I definitely gained a lot from it.

Clifford not only looks inside the mind of traders but also delivers strategies and ways to assess the market and then capitalize on this information. He delves into both fundamental and technical analysis and describes how when they are used in conjunction can be an extremely effective tool. Reading this book opens up your whole mind to a complete new perspective on the market and is a book that I will read again and again.

If you have not yet read this book then I recommend you get yourself a copy today and start reading, I can assure you you won’t regret it.

Perry

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